In 2025, there is significant uncertainty over the political stability of a range of undemocratic or authoritarian governments. This includes those countries that have recently experienced coups and are largely undergoing stalled political transitions to civilian rule that can face challenges to the military juntas’ grip on power, as well as those with aging presidents who could leave abrupt gaps in leadership. Some leaders have taken steps to manage these possibilities, such as attempting to implement dynastic succession, but internal rivalries among families or political elites could threaten these plans. Dissatisfaction among elites, within the military, or within the broader public may pose a challenge, particularly in the event of rapid or unexpected political changes.
Stalled political transitions, risk of renewed leadership crises to threaten stability of post-coup countries
Several countries in west and central Africa have experienced coups in recent years that remain at risk of further political and security instability. This risk is most acute in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, with all three run by military juntas that have been unable to address the jihadist insurgencies in their countries that have only worsened since they each took office. This is compounded by their hostile relations with several neighboring countries and withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), further disrupting trade and weakening their economies. The three countries are likely to continue strengthening ties with each other, but the absence of external support will worsen conditions regardless. These factors will increase the potential for political turmoil and the possibility of additional coups in the upcoming year, specifically motivated by aggrieved elements within the military reacting to their struggle to combat the insurgencies.
Although Guinea has fewer security considerations, the junta’s lack of a clear plan for transitioning to civilian rule by 2025 as promised indicates a potential for political turmoil. The junta has claimed financial and logistical challenges are hindering the organization of elections, but the country’s civil society and political opposition are likely to be particularly active this year if progress is not made. Moreover, hints at discontent within the military in 2024 suggest that the junta will continue to contend with internal threats at a time when public support is fraying. In contrast, Gabon is likely to meet its promised goals of holding elections in 2025 after successfully holding a constitutional referendum in 2024. The junta leader is expected to run and win the presidency as a civilian and maintain hold on the government, but the country is expected to remain stable through this process and going forward.
Aging presidents, dynastic succession planning to create uncertainty, potential for abrupt political crises
Across the continent, there are presidents that have been in office for decades with no clear indication of if or when they will step down despite signs of age and ill health. This has created uncertainty in a number of countries where a long-term ruler’s abrupt decline or death could create significant and immediate political turmoil. In some countries, these presidents are increasingly grooming their family members as their successors, creating complex and often contentious paths to leadership. This particularly foreshadows the possibility of significant political instability in several countries that are currently perceived as very stable due to long-term authoritarian leaders.
This is most critical in Cameroon, where President Paul Biya at age 91 has ruled for over 40 years and has reportedly had several health scares. While he is set to run for re-election in October 2025, Biya is also apparently grooming his son, Franck Biya, as his successor. However, Franck’s political debut has been poorly received by the public, while the ruling party faces growing divisions over who should succeed the president. Internal rivalries within the party and military could escalate, particularly as senior figures jockey for power in preparation for the 2025 elections. Biya’s efforts to secure his legacy, including reshuffling key defense positions, highlight his ongoing power consolidation, but a deterioration in his health could lead to a larger crisis.
Similarly, in Congo, President Denis Sassou Nguesso, 81, is positioning his son, Denis Christel, to take over after his demise. Family conflicts could complicate this process, with two of his cousins who hold positions as head of the intelligence service and a senior military officer, potentially challenging this plan. With the matter not fully settled, any abrupt change could spark a power struggle within the family and the ruling elite. Moreover, ethno-political tensions between the north and south could intersect with this, especially if the dynastic handover is seen as a continuation of Nguesso’s ethnic favoritism. In contrast, in Equatorial Guinea, Africa’s longest serving leader President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, 82, has been grooming his son Teodorin to succeed him for nearly a decade. Despite rivalries within the family possibly creating some uncertainty, a managed transition is the most likely outcome, though regardless the Obiang dynasty is expected to continue to rule.
President Yoweri Museveni, 80, of Uganda is expected to compete in the next presidential election in early 2026. Discussion of his succession is recurrent due to his clear positioning of his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as his successor. He is an often controversial figure due to his bombastic public statements and repeated diplomatic dustups particularly with neighboring countries. Although Muhoozi is a senior military figure, his consolidation of support within the country’s political and military elite has been fraught, and this, in addition to internal family rivalries, could complicate his rise to power.
Altogether, these countries represent the uncertainty and increased potential for rapid disruptions over leadership transitions, power struggles, and questionable succession plans that could trigger greater political instability throughout the continent.
