US Election 2024 Special Report

The Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be held in Chicago, IL from August 19-22. It will be attended by 5,000 delegates representing all 57 states and US Territories, former presidents, prominent Democratic Party leaders including senators, congress members, and governors, as well as Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris is set to receive the Democratic party’s presidential nomination along with her pick for Vice President, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. The primary venue for the convention’s main events will be the United Center, while McCormick Place will accommodate secondary convention events. DNC organizers expect around 50,000 visitors to Chicago for the convention, including 15,000 press members and 12,000 volunteers. Attendance at the convention will be limited to credentialed delegates, media personnel, and guests. Further information about the DNC can be found here.

In addition to the official convention activities, a variety of third-party events such as breakfasts, luncheons, panels, and receptions will be held throughout the week. Prior to the convention, a volunteer appreciation rally is slated at Wrigley Field on August 15, a media welcome party at Navy Pier on August 17, and a delegate welcome party at Navy Pier on August 18.

The convention has been designated a National Special Security Event (NSSE), with the US Secret Service coordinating security efforts alongside federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies. Consequently, authorities will significantly bolster security measures around the United Center and McCormick Place during the convention. This heightened security is in response to the potential for unrest during planned public demonstrations, particularly given the recent surge in misinformation campaigns and emerging conspiracy theories targeting the Democrats and VP Harris in recent weeks.

Planned protest activity

Activist groups associated with the Coalition to March on the DNC have been at odds with the city of Chicago regarding permissible demonstration locations, rejecting the city’s proposal to place them near a lakefront park roughly 3 miles (4.83 kilometers) from the convention site on the West Side. The city has approved an alternative protest route and location, where protesters will gather at Union Park on the Near West Side. From there, the group’s march will proceed to Park 578, situated just outside the pedestrian-restricted zone and which the city of Chicago has designated a ‘free-speech’ zone. Additionally, the city, through the Chicago Department of Transportation (CDOT), will provide a speaker’s platform and sound amplification equipment, which will be in or near Park 578. Speaking slots will be 45 minutes in length and will begin at the top of the hour starting at 11:00 (local time) with the final slot beginning at 18:00 each day on August 19-22.

The heightened sentiments surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict, the city’s denial of a longer protest march for the demonstrations scheduled for August 22, coupled with growing social media traction and online chatter, suggest that protests advocating pro-Palestinian causes—especially those organized by the Coalition to March on the DNC—carry a heightened potential for unrest. This is because there is a high likelihood of far-left radical activists, including loosely affiliated anarchist groups, joining the pro-Palestinian protests, given their engagement with the cause and organizing groups which include far-left Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL) and its front organization ANSWER Coalition, and the Black Lives Matter (BLM). Therefore, the potential for associated pro-Palestinian protests to escalate into clashes with police and incidents of vandalism against private and public property remains elevated. Additionally, protesters might potentially target businesses perceived to be pro-Israel. (See Extremism, Terror Watch, & Foreign Influence Section for further assessments on the risk posed by far-left groups)

Unsanctioned protests, even if peaceful, are likely to prompt a swift police response and subsequent dispersal. However, if these ad-hoc protests draw large turnouts or if there is a perception of excessive force by police, this could escalate the levels of unrest. Chicago’s anticipatory security preparations suggests that authorities will act swiftly to maintain control and diffuse instances of unrest. However, a forceful response could further galvanize protest movements involving left-wing anti-war groups, especially if perceived as overly aggressive or unjust, similar to the police response to demonstrations following the killing of George Floyd in 2020.

If the planned protests during the DNC escalate into unrest, several locations could see spillover effects, particularly areas that are strategically significant, symbolically important, or where protests might be directed due to political or social grievances. These could potentially include major transit hubs like Union Station, the CTA Red Line, and Blue Line stations near the convention site or in downtown Chicago. Israel-linked entities or Jewish places of worship in downtown Chicago such as the Chicago Loop Synagogue on 16 South Clark Street, Central Synagogue of Chicago on 112 South Michigan Avenue, the Israeli Consulate on 500 West Madison Street could also be the target of vandalism and spontaneous protests. Given this, these locations are likely to have increased security during the DNC to deter the likelihood of spillover or spontaneous protests.

Security measures and closures

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has designated the DNC a National Security Special Event (NSSE), entailing a comprehensive and coordinated security plan by the US Secret Service alongside federal, state, and local security forces and law enforcement. The security measures will be in effect from August 16-23. The Chicago Police Department (CPD) will be receiving additional support from 500 officers from various Illinois agencies, who are expected to have minimal contact with the public and will largely secure infrastructure around the convention. The Secret Service, which has been training against various threats, including lone gunmen and state-sponsored terrorist attacks, will deploy drones for medical emergencies and conduct aerial patrols using helicopters and airplanes near the DNC venues.

To enhance security and mitigate any uneventful circumstance, authorities have established two security zones around the United Center and McCormick Place: an outer vehicle screening zone and an inner pedestrian-restricted zone. The Secret Service will secure the inside of the United Center and its immediate surroundings, while CPD will manage the outer perimeter. The CPD, in conjunction with the Secret Service, will also man and secure rooftops with sightlines to the United Center. Details regarding the duration and timings of various checkpoints, vehicle-screening perimeter, and pedestrian-restricted zones can be found here. Details regarding street closures, sidewalk closures, parking restrictions, reroutes, and areas for rideshares and taxis can be found here. Additionally, the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) has also issued planned rerouted routes for public transportation buses near the United Center and McCormick Place from August 16-22. Details regarding any planned or ad-hoc CTA updates for the duration of the DNC can be found here. Meanwhile, with the beginning of the staging and buildout of the fencing on August 12, rolling road closures can be expected until August 17.

Separately, to respond to potential civil unrest during the scheduled protests, the CPD has introduced a set of directives under the Response to Crowds initiative. This includes the updated Coordinated Multiple Arrest (CMA) policy, which permits mass arrests as a last resort if individuals threaten public safety, cause property damage, or fail to comply with dispersal orders. Despite this, the CPD remains committed to de-escalating situations peacefully and respecting First Amendment rights, a priority for many activists and protest groups. Additionally, Circuit Court of Cook County will temporarily open an extra court facility from 08:00-23:59 to expedite the processing and release of protestors in the event of mass arrests during the DNC. Regardless of the security measures, reports indicate that many employers in Chicago have recommended remote work options while several businesses plan to remain closed to minimize any possible disruptions.

Extremism, Terror Watch, & Foreign Influence

The FBI and the DHS have not identified any specific or credible threats to security at the DNC convention as of writing. August 8 reports citing the FBI and DHS have indicated a potential threat posed by “follow-on or retaliatory acts of violence” targeting the DNC convention, stemming from concerns regarding online discourse on social media following the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump.

To that end, the absence of any credible indication regarding the deceased suspect’s motive has added to the ambiguity over the motive, heightening online rhetoric on both sides of the political spectrum. This broadly includes calls for civil war, blame on Antifa, and the alleged role of deep state as part of right-wing conspiracies and allegations of the assassination being staged echoed in left-wing/ anti-Trump chatter.

Several right-wing activists and Republican leaders propagated narratives surrounding President Joe Biden’s exit from the reelection bid on July 21. This includes allegations over the timing of his COVID-19 diagnosis, role of deep state, Biden’s death, use of deepfakes, VP Kamala Harris’ nationality, and calling her a “DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) hire”.

Based on the emerging trend, the risk posed by domestic extremists is higher currently than foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), including Islamist networks or their sympathizers. This is largely because unlike FTOs, which typically have a clear organizational structure, domestic extremists can be lone actors or part of loosely organized cells.

To this end, Al-Qaeda’s messaging is largely aimed at instilling fear and provoking sympathizers to plan attacks against symbolic targets, consistent with broader attempts by Islamist groups to call for violence against high-profile individuals and events in the West amid the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. This is reflected in a Pro-Islamic State (IS) platform threatening T20 World Cup fixture in New York on May 28, IS poster calling for attacks during the Paris Olympics, and the Champions League football matches in Europe in April. That said, the foiling of threat indications at an early stage stemming from Islamist radicalization or even Iranian networks in the USA given precedent reflects heightened surveillance of FTOs as well as foreign proxies, limits the potential for a successful attack at the DNC or against politicians ahead of the event.

Meanwhile, the proliferation of false flag propaganda from both, left and the right-wing, following the attack on Trump is liable to the decrease the potential for extremist groups to rally support as well as prompt organized radical networks adopt a more cautious approach to organizing disruptive incidents.

A pro-Trump X account casting doubt over security concerns at the DNC, alleging federal trap against Trump supporters

A self-proclaimed liberal democrat accusing Trump of orchestrating chaos to justify actions against perceived opposition

Although not a coordinated effort by organized groups, online posts have drawn parallels between the upcoming DNC and the riots during the 1968 DNC in Chicago, which involved a series of violent anti-government protests amid the US involvement in the Vietnam war, indicating attempts at drawing increased political and international attention. Given this, coupled with the involvement of groups like the PSL, BLM, and ANSWER coalition indeed suggests that loosely affiliated far-left networks and anti-war activists pose a relatively high threat of violent unrest as compared to far-right or Islamist threats.

On the same note, rudimentary sabotage attacks by far-left anarchists, manifesting as physical blockades, arson, or property damage against public transit facilities or against businesses in the city perceived to be supportive of Israel, cannot be ruled out, with similar modus operandi observed across the West, including the USA, as part of anarchist tactics in support of Palestine and other causes.

Moreover, the intensity of foreign-backed disinformation campaigns online, as noted in our July Special Report, is expected to particularly increase in the coming days ahead of the DNC in a bid to widen existing societal divisions. With this, propaganda accounts based in Russia, China, or Iran, are liable to impersonate as far-right or far-left networks and potentially encourage disruptive protests and violence. That said, the false flag chatter, as mentioned earlier, will indeed create mistrust and limit the appeal of such tacit or explicit violent rhetoric. In addition, as part of foreign influence operations, the threat of cyberattacks against government agencies based in Chicago or Illinois and campaign websites associated with the Democrats cannot be ruled out.

Key Upcoming Dates in August

August 14:Trump to deliver remarks on the economy in Asheville, NC
August 14:Republican VP nominee JD Vance to deliver remarks in Byron, MI
August 14: Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz to visit Denver, CO for campaign fundraiser
August 15: Biden, Harris to meet in Maryland to discuss cost of living
August 17: Trump to hold a rally in Wilkes-Barre, PA
August 20: Nonpresidential primaries in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming
August 29: Trump Fundraiser in Park City, UT